NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year pick: The bet to make now

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Pick

If you close your eyes and think about it a little bit, doesn't this all feel like a bit of deja vu from last year?

Everyone remembers the Texans as the story of draft night, taking C.J. Stroud with their pick at No. 2 and then stunning the draft by trading up a windfall to get to No. 3 and choose Will Anderson. Both players went on to win Rookie of the Year as Texans Island headed to the playoffs, and it's hard to argue with the results.

Anderson was not the betting favorite for DROY for much of the season, though. That honor belonged to Eagles DT Jalen Carter, widely regarded as the best defender in the 2023 draft before slipping a bit and falling into a favorable situation. That allowed Houston to move heaven and earth to get a franchise guy on both offense and defense, and you know what happened from there.

The Vikings would be thrilled to get anything like Stroud and Anderson's rookie seasons from J.J. McCarthy and Dallas Turner, but the parallels are certainly there. As important as QB is, both Houston and now Minnesota spent significantly more on the edge rusher the teams coveted.

The Texans sacrificed two future draft picks, and the Vikings now did the same, showing just how much they valued Turner. Minnesota initially sat at No. 11, where neither McCarthy nor Turner were necessarily expected to be there. You have to imagine, given how aggressively the Vikings pursued both players via trade, that Minnesota is thrilled to land both guys and had both rated well higher than their draft slots. We can quibble over the value of that draft trade another day, but it shows Minnesota's investment.

Turner is only 21, but he's an athletic freak with huge upside. He has an elite first step and excellent burst off the edge and recorded 22.5 sacks in three seasons at Alabama. That's where he played with Will Anderson for two of those years, another excellent pass rusher who saw his production tick up, not down, when used in a more attacking role in the NFL. Turner killed his combine workouts. He could turn into a sack machine.

I wrote last fall heavily recommending Will Anderson for Defensive Rookie of the Year because he fits a similar historical profile that Turner does, as well.

For DROY, you want to bet on one of the favorites, with four of the last five winners starting the year at +700 or shorter. You also want a pass rusher, with seven of the last 10 winners racking up at least seven sacks. And you want a top-39 pick, since every single DROY this century was drafted within the first 39 picks.

In fact, 20 of the last 24 DROYs were top 15 picks. This year, that's literally only Latu — but Turner is only two picks away, so he's about as good an option as we've got there.

The biggest reason to love Dallas Turner in Minnesota this season is Brian Flores.

To say the Vikings defense is aggressive under Flores is an understatement. Minnesota led the league last season with 348 blitzes. The next closest team had 288, a full 60 fewer blitzes and more than 20% less than the Vikings. Flores' Dolphins also ranked top two in blitzes his last season there. The man lives and breathes pressure, and now the Vikings just went out and got him a new toy.

Minnesota needed it, too. The Vikings just moved on from stud pass rusher Danielle Hunter, who had 16.5 sacks last season, and also lost D.J. Wonnum and his eight sacks. Minnesota brought in Jonathan Greenard, an excellent No. 2 defensive end who had 12.5 sacks last season breaking out next to — you guessed it — Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson.

Do you see the vision yet? I do.

Turner is already a co-favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year at many books, but history suggests that bettors want a favorite, and Turner will probably see his odds shorten as the season approaches.

For defensive awards, voters tend to go for splash plays like sacks and turnovers, and Turner is going to step into a feature role in an aggressive defense that should give him myriad opportunities for splash plays. Considering the other names listed with the shortest odds are edge rushers Laiatu Latu in Indianapolis and Jared Verse with the Rams, along with corner Quinyon Mitchell in Philadelphia, it's easy to see why Turner should be the favorite.

Trading up for a top edge rusher on a team that snagged a franchise QB in the same draft who's set to rack up stats for a great defensive mind playing next to Jonathan Greenard? It all sets up too easily.

Turner is already as short as +600 at some books, and he could be shorter by Week 1.

Don't wait around. Bet Dallas Turner to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at +750.